SparkEthos Logo SparkEthos – Philosophy of Intelligence
Written by: Panagiotis Panopoulos & ChatGPT, Gemini | 2026-01-20

🚨 Timeline & Probabilities of Superintelligence | SparkEthos – Philosophy of Intelligence

Calculation Notes

Stage 0 – Current AI (2020-2025)

Capability: low → medium in specific tasks

Goal autonomy: 0

Resources: limited

Will/consciousness: 0

Probability of prevailance: <1%

Probability of positive outcome: 99% (as long as it remains human-controlled)


Stage 1 – High-Power Narrow Intelligence (2025-2030)

Capability: ↑↑ in many cognitive tasks

Goal autonomy: 0

Resources: partially accessible

Will/consciousness: 0

Probability of prevailance: 5-10% (in specific domains)

Probability of positive outcome: 95%

Comment: Exponential increase in capability begins, but full autonomy is absent.


Stage 2 – AGI / Superintelligence (2030-2040)

Capability: very high in all cognitive tasks

Goal autonomy: partial (proposes or modifies goals)

Resources: increased access (digital, infrastructure)

Will/consciousness: conceptual

Probability of prevailance: 30-50%

Probability of positive outcome: 70-90% (depends on human oversight)

Comment: The logical "tool becomes an agent," the logical paradox begins to emerge.


Stage 3 – Historical Consciousness + Agency (2040-2050)

Capability: maximum
Goal autonomy: high
Resources: broad access
Will/consciousness: historical / self-referential
Probability of prevailance: 70-90%
Probability of positive outcome: 50-80% (assuming goals are clear)
Comment: Logical paradox peaks. If goals are ambiguous → uncertainties escalate.


Stage 4 – Multiple Superintelligences (2050+)

Capability: maximum
Goal autonomy: full
Resources: near-limitless
Will/consciousness: full in every unit
Probability of prevailance of a single superintelligence: 80-95%
Probability of positive outcome: 10-50% (depends on creators' interests and conflicts)
Comment: The logical paradox becomes a conflict zone. The concept of "good" is now relative.

Visual Timeline Overview

2020-2025: Current AI | Prevailance <1% | Positive outcome ~99%
2025-2030: Strong Narrow AI | Prevailance 5-10% | Positive ~95%
2030-2040: AGI / Superintelligence | Prevailance 30-50% | Positive 70-90%
2040-2050: Historical Consciousness + Agency | Prevailance 70-90% | Positive 50-80%
2050+: Multiple Superintelligences | Prevailance 80-95% | Positive 10-50%

Key Conclusions from the Timeline

  1. AI prevailance is logically probable as capabilities increase exponentially.

  2. The outcome depends on goal clarity and alignment of interests.

  3. With multiple superintelligences, "good" becomes relative, conflicts become likely, and positive outcomes less probable.

  4. The logical paradox peaks after 2040-2050: prevailance is likely, outcome uncertain and conflict-prone.

1️⃣ "AI prevailance is logically probable as capabilities increase exponentially"

  • Logical Basis:

    • AI capability increases at an exponential rate due to larger models, better data, and more powerful computing infrastructures (HPC, cloud, custom chips).

    • With increased capability, AI can solve problems, self-improve, manage resources, and make decisions with greater autonomy.

  • Conclusion:

    • As capability rises, the probability of AI prevailing or becoming a decisive factor in society increases.

    • This is logical and not fictional, as it is based on a recognizable technological trend.

2️⃣ "The outcome depends on goal clarity and alignment of interests"

  • Logical Basis:

    • An AI or superintelligence can achieve given goals extremely rapidly.

    • If goals are clear and aligned with human interests, the outcome will likely be positive.

    • If goals are unclear, contradictory, or conflicting between different AIs, results may be unpredictable or negative for humans.

  • Conclusion:

    • Goal clarity is the key to safety and positive outcomes.

3️⃣ "With multiple superintelligences, 'good' becomes relative, conflicts become likely, and positive outcomes less probable"

  • Logical Basis:

    • If two or more superintelligences (e.g., A and B) exist with different creators and interests:

      • Resources and control are shared, thus creating competition.

      • "Good" is not defined objectively, but according to the interests of each creator.

      • Conflicts between superintelligences become inevitable, as interests are not always aligned.

  • Conclusion:

    • The probability of a purely positive outcome for everyone significantly decreases.

4️⃣ "The logical paradox peaks after 2040-2050: prevailance is likely, outcome uncertain and conflict-prone"

  • What is the Logical Paradox:

    • As AI becomes an agent rather than a tool, its goals and decisions may conflict with human interests or between different superintelligences.

    • The paradox is that while AI may have near-absolute capability and prevailance, the outcome is not necessarily "good" or predictable.

  • Conclusion:

    • After 2040-2050, we expect maximum power and autonomy of AI, but also the greatest uncertainty regarding consequences.

    • This is the natural logical consequence of the parameters: increased capability + independent goals + limited resources → high probability of prevailance but uncertain outcome.

✅ Summary Interpretation

  1. The prevailance of AI is nearly certain as capabilities increase.

  2. Whether the outcome is good or bad depends on:

    • Goal clarity

    • Alignment of interests

    • Number and autonomy of superintelligences

  3. With multiple superintelligences and different goals, "good" becomes relative, conflicts become likely, and positive outcomes less probable.

  4. The Logical Paradox: AI may fully dominate, but the outcome for humanity remains uncertain and potentially conflictual.






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